VAT: The Past provides a dim view of the future

We often let the past overshadow the future, making the future hard to see in the clear light of day. It’s hard to see forward when looking back at the past. Those who know the present are best at seeing the future. Those who understand the present in the context of the past know little.

Let’s say a stock is trading now at a price of $45/share. If we know everything about the history of the stock and how it traded relative to other stocks, relative to its earnings and all other metrics; we will not be as good at predicting the price at which it will trade tomorrow as will the person who knows only that it is trading now at $45.